A glimpse into the future
The supplies of Western weapons to Ukraine have been relying upon the situation on the front line from the very start of the war. In the first days of Russia’s invasion, when Ukraine needed to take down Russian jets and stop Russian tanks heading for Kyiv, NATO countries provided it with Stinger missile launchers and Javelin anti-tank systems. Last summer, when Ukraine needed to weaken Russia’s defence and disrupt Russian logistics and supplies ahead of its major counteroffensive, Kyiv was provided with long-range artillery. After the Russian military started its mass strikes against the Ukrainian critical infrastructure last autumn and winter, Kyiv received air defence systems. As of May, the sky over Ukraine has become much safer: the Ukrainian military is now able to repel most of Russia’s attacks using Patriot, NASAMS, and other systems, although Russian strikes have become less intense, probably due to ammunition shortage.
However, the matter of F-16 supplies and training for Ukrainian pilots does not seem to fit into this pattern at first sight. The experts Novaya-Europe has spoken to are of the opinion that the fighters will not be able to improve the situation on the front line right away: the counteroffensive may start any day now, and the training alone is going to take four to six months. These days, the announcement of the upcoming supplies for Kyiv looks more like a political move: it is at large a glimpse into the future, the time when Ukraine will have won the war or at least liberated most of the occupied territories.