Picking targets at random

“In a year and a half of the war, we’ve seen several periods when the territory of Ukraine was being shelled with cruise and ballistic missiles,” Israeli military expert David Sharp tells Novaya-Europe.

“The large-scale phase of this war started with massive attacks on many Ukrainian cities. We saw the attempts to destroy airfields and other military facilities, suppress air defence systems. Last autumn and winter, they purposefully targeted energy infrastructure facilities. It’s obvious that there was a goal to completely or partially shut off power in the country, driving it to capitulation,” he explains.

“When they didn’t manage to do that, they started saving the missiles for the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive,” Sharp says.

At times, Russia used military intelligence to strike targets: this is what likely happened in the frontline city of Kramatorsk, the expert notes. The strike on a local pizzeria killed 13 and injured 60. “There were teenagers among the victims. This is a specific example of violating the rules of war,” Sharp stresses. “Furthermore, Russia’s version of events — eliminating two generals and a high number of senior officers and advisers with Ukraine’s Armed Forces during the attack — doesn’t hold up at all.”

However, in some cases, Russia is targeting locations at random, attacking Kherson, Nikopol, and other cities, with multiple rocket launchers, Sharp says.

Based on open-source data, foreign volunteers who support Ukraine’s Armed Forces could have been in the Kramatorsk pizzeria during the missile strike. Marine Corps veteran Ian “Frank” Tortorici was reportedly killed there. But this does not make the attack on a cafe with civilians inside any less of a war crime.

War crimes

There is not enough specific information on Russian ballistic and cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian territory, Sharp points out.

Using the latest attack on Lviv as an example, the military expert clarifies that we don’t know the specific target of the attack nor its actual results. It has not yet been determined whether there are any of Ukraine’s military facilities located near the explosion site.

It’s likely that more information will come out later on, as was the case with the 27 June 2022 missile attack on a mall in the city of Kremenchuk, the expert says. That case was thoroughly investigated. One could speculate that the Russians were targeting the plant located near the mall but misfired. Twenty-one people were killed back then, while 59 were injured. The footage from the attack site helped establish the type of ammunition used and other specifics.

Ukrainian military expert Roman Svitan tells Novaya-Europe that Russia targets civilian facilities purposefully, as cruise and ballistic missiles are precise weapons. “I would call this practice genocide or blackmail by a terrorist country. I assume that Putin demanded something from Biden or Zelensky — perhaps, to stop the counteroffensive, to withdraw The Hague court order, or to renegotiate the grain deal — and now he just kills Ukrainians as if they were hostages.”

“Logic dictates that unlike artillery fire or Grad multiple rocket launchers attacks, the decisions on missile strikes are made from the top of the military command,” adds David Sharp.

However, Sharp disagrees that Russia is striking civilian facilities in Ukraine on purpose and offers three main versions of why this is happening. “The first is the human factor: the mistake happens when the coordinates are put in or during missile control. The second possibility is technical defects that date back to the projectile’s production. Missiles are very complicated, and even the smallest thing gone wrong in the mechanism could significantly affect the end result of the launch. Also, we need to take the air defence into account as a hypothesis. It can lead to the falling of big pieces of low-flying missiles, including the anti-aircraft ones, on civilian buildings.”

The Israeli expert says that

According to Sharp, Russia began stockpiling missiles after the winter attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Beside the ultimate task of halting the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it’s likely that the attacks were supposed to put psychological pressure on Ukrainians and affect the country’s economy.

Besides, Ukraine is now forced to install more air defence systems in big cities, at the detriment to the front line where they are sometimes very necessary, the expert suggests.

100 missiles a month

Sharp suggests that the increased attacks could have been caused by some “bureaucratic” factors: the Russian military has to report to their bosses on their achievements.

One shouldn’t forget that Moscow’s missile supplies aren’t endless, Sharp adds. “These are expensive and complicated weapons. We’re talking about new Kh-101 missiles, Kalibr missiles, cruise missiles for Iskander-K, as well as ballistic missiles for Iskander-M and Kinzhal. Increasing the rate of production, or possibly even keeping the rate at the pre-war level, is quite hard to achieve in the midst of sanctions.”

Russia is currently capable of producing dozens, no more than a hundred, of cruise missiles per month, and only a small number of ballistic missiles, the expert estimates.

“By the end of the winter, it became clear that Russia needs to save its missiles. Today we see that instead of launching a big number of missiles and drones simultaneously in one major strike, Russia prefers regular attacks on a smaller scale,” Sharp notes.

“Russia can currently produce about 100 missiles a month,” says Roman Svitan. “The Kremlin will have the opportunity to launch ten missiles every three days for a long while yet.” The Kyiv region anti-aircraft and air defence systems are working quite well. So attacking this part of Ukraine is to pressure on civilians.

Ukraine has only one Patriot PAC-3 — the system able to intercept ballistic missiles. It covers Kyiv and has quite a small range, Sharp explains. But Ukraine is a big country, the bulk of which is still not protected properly. Missile and drone strikes on many big and medium-sized cities yield their deadly results.

“The Kremlin realised that Kyiv was well protected by air defence, so it’s now shelling other significant locations,” says Roman Svitan. “That includes Lviv and Zaporizhzhia. In the case with the Kramatorsk pizzeria, they were hunting down Colombian politicians and volunteers that were at the cafe at the time of the explosion. There was an inside man involved, he was eventually detained and gave his statement.”