The Russian Ministry of Defence has seemingly deprioritised the Bakhmut offensive in favour of preparing to defend against an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, writes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its latest assessment of Russia’s campaign against Ukraine.
Aside from very limited and localised attacks around Kreminna and near Donetsk, Russian forces have largely ceased offensive operations across the theatre, which may signify a general shift to defensive, ISW analysts explained.
PMC Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s desperate statements about ammunition shortages also indicate that the Russian General Staff has shifted its focus from Bakhmut to other areas. This decision may seriously undermine the efficiency of the PMC’s troops, though they are still attempting to completely capture Bakhmut. It remains unclear, ISW adds, whether Prigozhin really intends to withdraw Wagner troops from Bakhmut on 10 May or if the announcement was a last-ditch attempt to garner support from the Russian Ministry of Defence.
The PMC’s heavy losses in Bakhmut for the sake of tactical gains, as well as the shift of the Russian army to a more cautious posture, offers opportunities for the Ukrainian troops to successfully counterattack in various parts of the front, the ISW concludes.
On Thursday and Friday, Yevgeny Prigozhin published several videos announcing that he will withdraw Wagner troops from Bakhmut on 10 May unless the Ministry of Defence supplies them with ammunition. According to Prigozhin, as of 1 May the PMC had been receiving only 10% of the ammunition needed.
Shortly afterwards, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu ordered to keep issues connected with the continuous supply of all necessary ammunition and equipment to the fighting troops “under special control”.
Prigozhin has already threatened the Ministry of Defence with Wagner’s retreat from Bakhmut unless the group is supplied with more ammunition.
