Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic time frame and likely without sufficient combat power, says the US-based Institute for the Study of War.
The UK Defence Ministry assessed on 7 February that Russia has highly likely been attempting to launch a major offensive operation to reach the Donetsk region administrative borders since early January 2023 but had only been able to gain several hundred metres of territory per week. The UK Defence Ministry attributed such a slow pace to Russian munitions shortages and a lack of manoeuvre units that are necessary for a successful and rapid offensive.
The agency also noted: Russia is unlikely to build up the combat power necessary to substantially affect the outcome of the war while Russian military command continues to demand for unrealistic and sweeping advances.
ISW reported on 27 January that Vladimir Putin hoped to regain the initiative in the Ukraine War and prepared a new offensive that may begin as early as February or March 2023.
ISW similarly assessed on 28 January that Russian leadership may be once again planning a decisive offensive based on erroneous assumptions about Russian military capabilities and likely lacks the combat power necessary to sustain more than one major offensive operation.
ISW also observed the Kremlin signalling preparations for an early 2023 offensive in December but assessed that the time and space relationship may hinder Russian rapid and large-scale advance aspirations as Ukraine heads into a muddy spring season unsuitable for manoeuvre warfare.
The Financial Times reported on 5 February that Russia could launch a renewed large-scale offensive in Ukraine in the following 10 days, citing an unnamed adviser to the Ukrainian military.
FT analysts believe that the most likely place where a new Russian attack will be unleashed is the western part of the Luhansk region near Kreminna and Lyman, the area that was recaptured by Ukraine during its counter-offensive in autumn 2022.
