Russian forces have begun their major offensive in the Luhansk region and are continuing their offensive near Bakhmut, the US-based Institute for the Study of War reports in its daily assessment.
Geolocated combat footage has confirmed Russian gains in the Dvorichna area northwest of Svatove. American analysts believe that the Russian military command additionally appears to have fully committed elements of several conventional divisions to decisive offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
Elements of several regiments of the 144th and 3rd Motor Rifle Division (20th Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) and a regiment of the 90th Tank Division (Central Military District), supported by elements of the 76th Airborne Division and unspecified Southern Military District elements, are conducting offensive operations along the entire Svatove-Kreminna line and are reportedly advancing against Ukrainian defences.
Russian forces are gradually beginning an offensive, but its success is not inherent or predetermined, ISW believes.
While Russian forces in the Luhansk region now have the initiative (in that Russian forces are setting the terms of battle, ending the period of Ukrainian initiative from August 2022), the full commitment of these forces could lead to their eventual culmination along the Svatove-Kreminna line without achieving their objectives of capturing all of Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
“That culmination would likely provide a window of opportunity for Ukrainian forces to exploit with their own counteroffensive,” the experts say.
Russian sources are widely reporting that conventional Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian defensive lines and making marginal advances along the Kharkiv-Luhansk regional border, particularly northwest of Svatove near Kupyansk and west of Kreminna. Ukrainian forces are so far preventing Russian forces from securing significant gains.
PMC Wagner is reportedly resorting to more coercive tactics in its prison recruitment campaign, possibly in response to the campaign’s declining effectiveness despite claims that it has stopped recruiting convicts.
ISW reported yesterday that Russia was desperate to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer the Donetsk region in an unrealistic time frame and likely without sufficient combat power.
