Since the beginning of May 2023, Russia has been increasingly ceding the military initiative to Ukraine in the war and reacting to Ukraine’s actions instead of progressing towards its own war aims, the UK Defence Ministry reports in its daily bulletin.
According to the ministry, the Russian army has launched “20 nights of one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicle and cruise missile attacks deep inside Ukraine” this month.
“Russia has had little success in its likely aims of neutralising Ukraine’s improved air defences and destroying Ukrainian counter-attack forces. On the ground, it has redeployed security forces to react to partisan attacks inside western Russia,” the statement reads.
According to the bulletin, “Russian commanders are likely attempting to generate reserve forces and position them where they believe a Ukrainian counter-attack will occur.” However, instead they were most likely deployed to Bakhmut, the ministry reports.
On 21 May, the UK Defence Intelligence reported that Russia had restarted frequent long-range missile strikes deep into Ukraine since the beginning of May 2023. They are likely primarily aimed at degrading Ukrainian air defences, according to the UK ministry.