A collapsing state
The war unleashed by the Kremlin against Ukraine seems to have led to a growing crisis of the Russian state.
The active participation of the Wagner Group, a private military company established by businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, in Russian military operations in Ukraine, his aggressive rhetoric towards the leadership of Russia’s Defence Ministry, and his active public presence — all this is pointing to Russia becoming a failed state that has lost its monopoly on violence and basic governability.
It is especially symbolic that Prigozhin, a man with a criminal past, is setting free and arming thousands of convicts, including many violent criminals. Leaders of organised crime groups, drug dealers, convicted murderers and robbers have been released from prison and are now fighting on the frontline. When these people come back from the war, they will inevitably fuel a new wave of violence at home.
It is easy to see the current situation as a sign of the looming collapse of the state and impending trouble and unrest in Russia, which will turn into a battleground for criminal gangs and private military groups.
But we can also look at this from another perspective.