A poster hails Russian victory in Ukraine next to a Moscow church, 20 February 2023. Photo: EPA / Yuri Kochetkov
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (FISU) said on Friday that it believed the Kremlin was preparing a large-scale provocation with “significant human casualties” intended to derail the ongoing US-led attempts to broker a peace deal between the two countries.
Warning that its intelligence suggested that a place of worship either in the Russian Federation or in the Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine was the most likely target, FISU said it expected an “armed provocation of Russian special services” to take place during Orthodox Christmas celebrations, on or around 7 January.
The FISU statement continued that following Moscow’s claim on Monday that Kyiv had launched an “attack on Vladimir Putin’s residence,” the Kremlin began spreading “new, falsified reasons,” laying the groundwork for a transition from manipulative influence to armed provocation.
Noting that such an attack could be carried out “under a foreign flag”, something it said was “entirely consistent with the modus operandi of Russian special services”, the FISU statement ended with an appeal to the media “to question and thoroughly verify the materials published by the Kremlin” in order to avoid involuntarily spreading Russian disinformation.
The warning from Ukrainian intelligence comes just one day after the occupation authorities in the Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine’s Kherson region accused Kyiv of carrying out a drone strike on a cafe and hotel in the Black Sea town of Khorly that left some 27 people dead. The Ukrainian authorities have categorically rejected any involvement in the alleged attack.
On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that Ukrainian drones had attacked one of Putin’s official residences in Valdai, which Ukraine also subsequently denied. The CIA also reportedly came to the conclusion that Ukraine did not attempt to attack Putin’s residence, but had been targeting a military facility in the same region.
