In late October, a drone reached its target, exploded, and destroyed part of the roof of the main building of the Russian Special Forces University in Gudermes. Twice, on 4 and 12 December, the Akhmad Kadyrov 2nd Special Police Regiment in Grozny was attacked. In the latest attack on Sunday, a drone hit a riot police unit in Grozny.

In his statement about the latest strike, Kadyrov spoke of three drones that attacked Grozny, adding that only one reached its target, while the other two were allegedly “shot down by air defence forces”.

But it appears there was only one drone, Novaya Gazeta Europe’s source in the Chechen Federal Security Service (FSB) has confirmed — the same drone captured on numerous video recordings made both by residents of Grozny and Chechen law enforcement officers.

Despite Kadyrov’s claims, aircraft defence systems in the republic have never been used during drone attacks on Chechnya, according to Novaya Europe’s sources. Videos of the Sunday attack show the Chechen police using automatic guns to shoot down the drone, which clearly proved useless — not a single bullet hit the drone flying 25 meters above the ground.

The three previous attacks by Ukrainian drones occurred in the early hours of the morning, and so were not spotted. For this reason, many Chechen residents surveyed by Novaya Europe expressed doubts that the drones were even launched from Ukraine. Some speculated that the attacks could have been orchestrated by the Chechen authorities themselves, in order to gain an additional argument for forcing Chechens into mobilisation for the war.

But all doubts were dispelled when a drone flying from the Azov Sea successfully hit its target on Sunday, at 7:45am, and was captured on numerous videos by local residents and police officers.

The video clearly identifies the Ukrainian Foxbat drone, which is a converted ultra-light A-22 aircraft adapted into an unmanned vehicle. It can cover a distance of up to 2,000km and carry up to 300kg of explosives.

Our source in the Chechen FSB confirmed that an A-22LS drone had flown into Grozny on Sunday.

Four successful drone attacks in six weeks don’t so much raise the question about how effective the air defence systems stationed in Chechnya are as they do about how unprepared they were to repel attacks.

While Chechnya does have separate air defence units — for instance, S-300 and S-400 defence systems have been deployed at the military base in the village of Borzoy to protect Russia’s southern border with Georgia — these systems are generally unable to destroy low-flying drones.

Additionally, several anti-aircraft missile and missile-artillery systems, Tor and Pantsir, which have proven effective against drone attacks in Moscow, have been installed to the east of Grozny to protect a key military facility in the republic, the Khankala federal military base. Khankala has its own airfield where military helicopters, which can also effectively destroy drones, are based.

Besides, other National Guard military units are equipped with Soviet-made ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns, which are much cheaper but quite effective against drones.

This entire arsenal of air defence is more than sufficient to detect and destroy Ukrainian drones not only directly over the city but also on approach, which is much safer for local residents. But all these systems proved useless during the Ukrainian drone attacks on Chechnya, as they simply were not deployed.

This fact is confirmed not only by our sources in the investigative bodies and law enforcement agencies of the republic but also by numerous video recordings of the drone attack on Sunday. In none of these recordings can the characteristic sounds of heavy anti-aircraft weapons be heard, nor is any military helicopter visible in the sky over Grozny.

According to a Novaya Europe source, the Chechen authorities were informed about drone attacks planned by Ukrainian military intelligence as early as July this year. This information was personally passed on to Kadyrov by the commander of the Akhmat Special Forces battalion General Apti Alaudinov.

The republic even made appropriate preparations in response. For example, so-called mobile ambushes were set up along the M-29 Rostov–Baku federal highway — Toyota pickups with ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft installations welded to them.

Similar installations are used to protect Kadyrov’s residence in Grozny and are extensively deployed in his native village of Tsentoroy. Additionally, the ZU-23-2 is in service with all Chechen National Guard units, including the riot police unit which was hit by a Ukrainian drone on Sunday.

But according to our source, on Sunday all these “ambushes” and installations proved useless, simply because Chechen law enforcement officers had gone home “to eat and rest” for the weekend.

The anti-aircraft installations were peacefully stored and covered instead of being ready for combat at the same riot police unit which the Ukrainian drone hit on Sunday for the same reason. The third aerial attack on Grozny in a month appeared to have taken everyone by surprise.

Such negligence is typical of Kadyrov’s forces, who only work overtime during raids involving mass detentions of local residents. Curiously enough, Kadyrov has not punished his fighters following the successful attacks by Ukrainian drones.

However, according to our source, Kadyrov sent all his wives and younger children to Abu Dhabi, where the Kadyrov family owns a large amount of real estate, after the first drone strike on the Russian University of Special Forces in Gudermes in late October, and they are not expected back in Chechnya any time soon.

There is no doubt that Ukraine will continue its successful attacks on Chechnya. The targets chosen for these attacks are clearly selected to inflict the maximum amount of damage on Kadyrov’s image, but the problem is that the drone attacks, while aimed at Kadyrov’s reputation, may have dire consequences for the civilian population.

It so happens that the bases of the Chechen Interior Ministry and National Guard, which report directly to the head of Chechnya, are located in the central district of Grozny, surrounded by high-rise buildings. It is terrifying to imagine what might happen if Kadyrov’s forces finally deploy their anti-aircraft systems and shoot down a drone carrying 300kg of explosives over a residential district.