Russia is preparing to send more convicts and Chechen fighters to Ukraine to fill the gaps left by Wagner PMC mercenaries, Bloomberg reports.
According to anonymous European intelligence officials, Ukraine’s counteroffensive advancing towards Bakhmut risks overstretching Russian units.
“Russia deployed large numbers of troops to Bakhmut after Wagner announced its withdrawal from the city in late May, leaving shortages in occupied areas of southern Ukraine,” the officials told Bloomberg.
The sources believe that Wagner’s withdrawal from the front line will not change the course of the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Putin’s determination to avoid full military mobilisation means that Russia is likely to send more Chechen soldiers and prisoners to the front line in the coming weeks.
Sources estimate that the Defence Ministry has increased the number of convicts in the army to about 15,000, and this figure is expected to grow.
It is not clear, however, how many additional troops Chechnya can provide, Bloomberg writes. The head of the republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, said in May 2023 that 7,000 Chechen soldiers were already fighting in Ukraine and another 2,400 were undergoing training.
On 10 June, Russian defence minister Sergey Shoigu signed a decree requiring all “volunteer troops” to sign a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defence by 1 July. Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin immediately stated he would not sign any contracts with the MoD.
On 23 June, Prigozhin and his mercenaries announced a “March of Justice” on Moscow. They captured the southern cities of Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh the next day, and started moving towards the Russian capital. Shortly thereafter, Belarusian President Alyaksandar Lukashenka said he had held negotiations with Prigozhin and talked the rebels out of their “march on Moscow”.
The same day, Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing the early release of convicts who sign a contract with the Russian army.
