No resistance

“We are not currently seeing convoys of thousands of Wagner Group fighters moving towards Moscow,” Israeli military expert David Sharp tells Novaya-Europe. “We can surmise that the mentioned 25,000 is the total number of Prigozhin’s subordinates stationed at different bases. It is possible that they have all started heading to Rostov-on-Don and onto Moscow from there. We have no precise data on these forces. However, what’s more crucial here is what resistance will be mounted against them. So far, the police and the Russian National Guard have seemingly remained neutral if not siding with the rebels. It is not difficult to stop a column of even a few thousands of people on the move in marching formation by scrambling jets or using regular army units. However, reports have been suggesting that law enforcement troops are not putting up any significant resistance against the private military company. There is some footage of gunfights, but it’s not large-scale battles.”

According to David Sharp, Russia should have enough forces to stamp out the coup: the FSB special operations centre, Russian National Guard units, special operations forces, and so on. The pressing question lies with whether these formations will follow the orders and move to fight against the Wagner group. Cases when law enforcers join Yevgeny Prigozhin’s cause have been already recorded in Rostov-on-Don.

Sharp believes that even a relatively small group of rebels can achieve certain success if they act decisively. If they continue to meet no meaningful resistance, Wagner Group fighters can capture a few more large cities and regional capitals. Prigozhin’s main task now? Act quickly, before the authorities recover their senses and bounce back.

“Classic warfare is not conducted in marching columns,” the expert explains. “Without any real rear supplies, ammo stocks, kitchen, and everything else required. The ultimate goals set by Prigozhin for his troops are also unclear. Media outlets report that a number of buildings have already been captured by the Wagner Group in Voronezh. The mercenaries will possibly continue moving towards Moscow.”

Wagner fighters claim to have downed a few helicopters already. However, David Sharp believes that the attack helicopters used on the frontlines today will easily destroy a moving column of troops. However, other people in the traffic will possibly be affected as well. The rebels are essentially using other civilian cars as a shield against any potential air strikes.

Two Wagner Group fighters who are currently in the Moscow region on leave, tell Novaya-Europe that the mercenary company leadership contacted them yesterday with an order “to be ready to move towards the private military group’s approaching unit”. Yevgeny Prigozhin has essentially announced mobilisation of all his former subordinates. In total, there might be at least 30,000 more of them to add to the ones in the ranks now.

Ukraine’s time

Ukrainian commanders seemingly cannot believe how lucky this is turning out to be for them. The rebellion will in any case weaken the Russian units defending against the Ukrainian offensive.

“Wagner Group fighters will be busy opposing Russia’s regular army,” Oleksandr Musiyenko, head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies, tells Novaya-Europe. “The Russian Defence Ministry is not fighting, it’s engaged in a showdown with Prigozhin. It’s clear that supply lines of the Russian group of forces lying through Rostov-on-Don will be interrupted. We can forecast that many military units will defect to the private military company’s side, including the formations stationed along the line of engagement. The situation creates new chances for the Ukrainian army to use the rebellion to amplify and intensify its offensive actions and liberate its territories.”

Roman Svitan, a Ukrainian reserve colonel, describes the ongoing coup as a staged operation. “No one in Russia is putting up any serious resistance against the Wagner Group columns for some reason,” he tells Novaya-Europe. “The allegedly downed military helicopter is also staged. Ukraine should be ready to deal with military intrigues and trickery. We should be watching where Prigozhin’s forces will head to after Voronezh. It is possible that it’s just a redeployment of troops to the Kharkiv or Sumy axis via Kursk. If Wagner fighters turn to the highway leading to Moscow, then we will be watching and drawing conclusions.”