Finally in the top-10

According to the Levada Centre’s survey, in May, Yevgeny Prigozhin made it to the top-10 ranking of most trusted Russian politicians for the first time. Four percent of the respondents said they trusted the head of PMC Wagner. This number rose by 3% in one month.

After proclaiming to have captured the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Prigozhin immediately went on tour of Russian big cities. In a few days, he managed to come to Yekaterinburg, Vladivostok, Novosibirsk, and Nizhny Novgorod. Everywhere, his visits were spontaneous and ended with hours-long meet-ups with journalists. “I wanted to travel around, speak [to people], hear [their] opinions, and make a decision on how to share information so that the public doesn’t become discouraged,” said Prigozhin in one of the interviews. “We captured Bakhmut — I have three free days.”

The leader of Wagner’s mercenaries talked about the fate of Russia, how the war is going, and possible scenarios of what comes next. He also presented his new project Second Front, whose goal is to provide ideological and information support not so much to PMC Wagner as to its owner personally.

In his speeches, Prigozhin spoke about the need for another mobilisation wave, to recruit one, or better two, million new soldiers. He praised Stalin and proposed going back to capital punishment. At least for the military and law enforcement. Furthermore, the Wagner leader said that the war would go on for many years to come, which would lead to Russia ending up in total isolation, just like North Korea.

The Second Front project, according to Prigozhin, is a “media community which will share accurate information about the state of the special military operation, how things really are”. The organisation is supposed to rally the people and make them “realise the actual threat level”.

Supposedly, this move will channel the pessimistic mood among the most radical factions of ultra-right patriots and steal their votes from other opposing candidates.

“Officially, the Kremlin won’t let Prigozhin participate in the presidential campaign,” political scientist Abbas Gallyamov tells Novaya-Europe. “Putin’s ratings are going down anyway, why would he need someone else to come in and steal votes? In a situation where the usual governance institutions become obsolete, the role of the streets grows higher.”

“Prigozhin is trying to get the support of common Russians. He needs it because lately his image has been compromised. In case there’s a regime change, Prigozhin basically won’t have any chances of remaining free. Not only if the opposition comes out on top, for example [Alexey] Navalny or [Ilya] Yashin, but even if, let’s say, [Moscow Mayor Sergey] Sobyanin or [PM Mikhail] Mishustin end up in power. They don’t have any obligations to Prigozhin, and these people will also happily imprison him.” According to Gallyamov, Prigozhin aims to create a significant circle of support among the public to secure his freedom and life itself.

The PMC Wagner leader is an ambitious man: he might also be counting on the fact that in a time of revolution, the power will be literally up for grabs. If he takes it, he could lay claim to the top ruling positions.

Mad Max

“I think there’s a minimal chance of Prigozhin winning the presidency,” explains Abbas Gallyamov. “The ‘patriotic’ niche is currently fully occupied by Putin. If people stop liking him, it will mean not only being disappointed by a personality but also by the idea itself of global resistance to the outside world. People like that will not suddenly go looking for a new idol. Furthermore, not many will be into the image of a criminal who uses foul thieves’ slang and inspires only negative emotions with his behaviour. The majority of Russians don’t see their president in a person like that. A head of state should not only speak clearly and engagingly but also have a strategic vision and a gift for ruling and managing on a country level. Prigozhin has not demonstrated such talents.”

However, our interlocutor is certain that

This could be due to the fact that the more marginalised parts of Russian society appreciate a straight shooter who doesn’t feel the need to hide anything in his comments about the current events. So, the Wagner chief can definitely count on a seat in the next State Duma elections.

Prigozhin himself, when asked by a journalist whether “the people will see his party in the Duma or him as a presidential candidate”, replied quite intricately: “You won’t. At least, as of today all of the objectives are completely different. If we turn into a Libyan desert and start racing across the sand on jeeps like in Mad Max, then we’ll have to establish a party.”

Some political analysts think that Prigozhin will be able to gain the support of the late Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s electoral body, at least some parts of it. Zhirinovsky was a notorious political showman known for his radical statements and vulgar outbursts. He died in 2022, not long after the war began.

However, according to Gallyamov, even that will be a hard-won victory. Because Zhirinovsky, despite all his scandals and shocking statements, was a positive figure. In turn, the leader of Wagner lets people see only all-encompassing anger, contempt, and cruelty.

Gallyamov is certain that Prigozhin will not use the mercenaries of his private army to attempt a coup d'état. The most he could do, according to the political scientist, is try to seize “dominion” over one of the regions under the pretext of defending it from an incoming enemy. For example, Crimea or the Belgorod region, which will see something akin to Pirates of Tortuga. In his letter addressed to Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu, Prigozhin basically asks for control over the region.

“We have to take into account that the Wagner mercenaries are prepared to take orders from their commander only while he’s representing the state,” explains Gallyamov. “This loyalty is not absolute and will expire the moment there’s a conflict with the higher federal government.”

‘Bad guy’

“Prigozhin, being a sensible man, understands that in Putin’s circle, he is basically the only real public politician. But he will not use this fact to gain supreme power in the country,” political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky shares his view of the situation with Novaya-Europe. “Prigozhin will not be running for president and he will not be going against Putin. One of his most important missions in relation to the head of state is to be the ‘bad guy’ in the eyes of the progressive public and the West. Be worse than Putin.

“The Russian president always positioned himself as the lesser evil. For liberals, he was the symbol of the final frontier before the primordial Russian people who would rebel against them and the nationalists who would beat them down. For the West, he tried to put on an image of the only one staving off a ‘brown-red revival”. With Putin gone, the country would allegedly be torn into pieces, and an appearance of several new uncontrollable states with nuclear weapons in place of Russia would be a nightmare for the US. But to be the lesser evil, one needs a bigger evil that can be controlled. I don’t know at what point they struck this agreement, but the roles have clearly been written beforehand.”

According to Stanislav Belkovsky, it’s to fulfil the assigned task and play the role of a “bad guy” that Prigozhin announces ideas that are obviously repellent: turning Russia into North Korea, declaring total mobilisation, bringing back planned economy and capital punishment, etc. Before, Prigozhin with his PMC was a covert “bad guy” that could be assigned delicate tasks, but now he is playing the same role out in the public.

“Even Kadyrov and his team’s attacks [against Prigozhin] fit into this scheme,” continues Belkovsky. “They strengthen Prigozhin’s positions among nationalists and Russian supporters of the ‘Z special operation’ who can’t stand the head of Chechnya. The leader of PMC Wagner passes all of his earned political capital to the president who acts out his usual role as a mediator of irreconcilable power groups (that would allegedly destroy each other the second Putin is gone). This is why everyone is keen on Putin staying forever.”

According to Belkovsky, Prigozhin is primarily a businessman, who goes where the profit is. According to some data, the leader of PMC Wagner has earned a fortune since the start of the war. Despite his high-profile dispute with Shoigu, the companies controlled by Prigozhin receive billions of rubles from the federal budget through state contracts with Russia’s Defence Ministry. During the war, the “payments” increased several times. This is done on a direct order from Putin.

“The 2024 presidential elections will be held in a routine and familiar manner,” our interlocutor is certain. “It will have dummy candidates like Zyuganov and Mironov, and compared to them even a tired Putin will appear almost young and quite powerful. In this context, Prigozhin could definitely get a quite big share of the votes, which doesn’t coincide with the Kremlin’s plans.”