Playing the victim

PMC Wagner was still deprived of ammunition as of 10 May. At the same time, instead of fulfilling his promise and starting to withdraw his men from their positions in Bakhmut, Prigozhin continues to play the victim and says that deceitful leaders of the Defence Ministry still deprive him of the necessary ammo. He also describes the horrible repercussions that will surely follow if they abandon the positions. He often gets off the track, but the general idea is clear:

“We received a combat order which literally said [the following]. First: in case we leave our positions, it will be considered treason. If we receive no ammo, we shall leave our positions and pose the following question: who’s the high traitor here? A Defence Ministry unit fled one of the PMC flanks. Abandoning their positions, everyone made a run for it, laying bare a strip of front line almost two kilometres wide and about 500 metres deep. The 72th brigade pissed away three square kilometres today, and about 500 of my men were killed there. It’s because the area used to be a strategic foothold.”

Next up, Prigozhin said that the head of Russia’s General Staff himself reduced the ammo supplies for PMC Wagner tenfold. He predicted the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive, praised Russian army general Sergey Surovikin who was appointed to coordinate the efforts of the General Staff and PMC Wagner, called the Ministry of Defence “the Ministry of machinations”, promised not to leave the positions in Bakhmut, congratulated his viewers on Victory Day, and said no one should be showing off (profanities replaced) in the Red Square.

What does all this tough-guy-ism mean when it comes from a person who has no formal status in the Russian military?

Prigozhin’s last battle

Since the Russian Ministry of Defence rarely deigns to respond to Yevgeny Prigozhin, his former ally Ramzan Kadyrov recently took the side of the authorities in the public fray with the head of PMC Wagner.

Kadyrov claims the mercenaries will soon enjoy better conditions on the front line. But nobody is going to let them back up to the rear.

Yulia Latynina, a journalist and a military observer, suggested in one of her interviews that all this heated quarrel about the ammo is but a clumsy decoy produced by Russia’s command. “I am convinced that the Ukrainian General Staff should seriously consider that Prigozhin is pulling their leg,” Latynina said.

If you look at the map, this would be a superb giveaway for the Ukrainian military. If Wagner retreats, the entire flank becomes exposed, and communication lines of other Russian units will not hold. As far as I’m concerned, this shell hunger stuff he allegedly suffers from is not a real thing. There are two reasons behind that: firstly, Gerasimov (the head of Russia’s General Staff) is saving up shells for the counteroffensive. Secondly, as Mykhaylo Podolyak (Ukrainian presidential administration advisor) told me, there are as many shells used [against Ukraine] in Bakhmut as there were before.”

Yulia Latynina is certain that Russia’s leadership is turning Prigozhin into a “spoiler candidate” for the upcoming presidential election and expects him to attract the votes of enraged patriots.

“Those must be led by someone whom they can control. This whole thing is the creation of Putin’s spin strategists, most likely Kiriyenko (the first deputy chairman of Russia’s presidential administration).”

Latynina believes that Prigozhin still remains one of Putin’s favourites who balances against the Defence Ministry clan. To illustrate this, she uses General Mizintsev who could only have traded his deputy Defence Minister position for PMC Wagner with Putin’s blessing. In addition to this, the journalist reveals the reasons behind personal mutual dislike between Prigozhin and Shoigu, Russia’s Defence Minister. Latynina believes the issue has some commercial background: it’s either businessmen close to Shoigu or companies of “Putin’s chef” that receive government contracts for the Defence Ministry. This is where two Putin’s favourites clash in an irrepressible conflict.

Military observer Michael Nacke agrees that the claims of a bogus story by Prigozhin aimed to trick the Ukrainian military are worth considering. It might be a large performance,” Nacke wrote in his blog. “It is probably being used to make Ukrainians think the counteroffensive would be a walk in the park for them.

This would weaken Ukraine’s attacks on other, less prepared directions. Can this be true? Well, theoretically, it might be. But insulting Gerasimov, Shoigu, and Putin in such a way would be excessive as it hurts their profile.”

Military analyst social media groups and Telegram channels reported earlier that Prigozhin’s feud against the top military brass was but a hoax aimed at confusing the opponent. “The Main Directorate of the General Staff (GRU) controlled and still controls PMC Wagner, in which Yevgeny Prigozhin is the main public figure and the collector of non-public (as well as public) money and recruits,” wrote the Volya channel on Telegram.

This is something GRU officers posted with PMC Wagner do. Mizintsev’s appointment as deputy commander of Wagner is neither a sign that Mizintsev fell out of favour with someone, nor a sign of Prigozhin’s growing influence. It shows that PMC Wagner will soon be further incorporated into the military structure, and this is what Mizintsev joined it for: to concentrate administration and supply management in the hands of the GRU in addition to the military management. Sources within the Defence Ministry report that there is no conflict between Mizintsev and Shoigu.”

Anticipating a defeat

It may seem as if the train of war goes on its way despite the noise Prigozhin and other parties of the conflict make. PMC Wagner keeps storming Bakhmut, Ukrainian cities suffer more and more missile attacks, people keep dying or losing their closest ones. “This train of war is making no headway and is only preparing to reverse,” says political scientist Abbas Gallyamov as he speaks to Novaya-Europe.

What else do you expect from him? He has this shell hunger and blames it on Gerasimov and Shoigu. Since Putin issued his order to provide PMC Wagner with ammo, and did so quite long ago, we can see today that either his orders are being ignored by his subordinates, or he is being directly manipulated as he is told about the “shell hunger”. So, that means he can actually be disobeyed.” Abbas Gallyamov says that many people are under the impression that the Russian president tried to tackle the problem and failed to solve it. Putin’s evident inability to stop this quarrel from being public is yet another negative thing for the regime, the expert believes. It cripples Putin’s influence on the security men. Shoigu’s and Gerasimov’s weakening profiles will also plummet since everything in the military relies upon undivided authority and credibility. There should be no doubt that you cannot disobey your boss. And here we have some bald felon dishonouring and blackmailing the military top brass for everyone to see while the latter are content with it and carry out his assignments.

“Prigozhin has set a nasty example: if you kick up noise and threaten people, you’ll get your ammo,” Gallyamov continues. “If you stay quiet, you won’t get anything. The discipline is weakening, which is very dangerous for a country that is at war.

Every man, such as Prigozhin or Kadyrov, is his own master and acts at his own risk and peril while Putin is watching the Victory Day parade.”

Abbas Gallyamov says it is situations like this when the top leadership can no longer execute its functions that cause revolutions. Coups and civil wars may start with small events that are quite hard to detect from stage one.

Abbas Gallyamov is of the opinion that Prigozhin’s political ambition emerged last autumn. The leader of PMC Wagner would appear in public domain and write things in all sorts of places without any necessity to act this way. Remember his comments on Dmitry Medvedev’s posts? Apparently, Prigozhin thought he had seized an opportunity. It was then when he had free range to do anything for several months straight.

Gallyamov believes Prigozhin suggested that Putin use PMC Wagner to hold power in the country, relying on marginal groups of people who would be given weapons, and not on state institutions. Apparently, Putin considered this option, but decided to keep official bodies as the core of his power, being a conservative advocate of a strong state.

Yevgeny Prigozhin cannot boast having a deep understanding of politics, Gallyamov says. An experienced politician would never create so many confrontations at the drop of a hat. He rallied the elites together against himself, and made an inexcusable number of mistakes. As a result, he was surrounded by enemies who teamed up against him. Now the mercenary leader will need to wriggle out of this situation if he wants to avoid major losses.

From love to hate 

A common enemy, namely several military commanders, put Prigozhin and Kadyrov together as allies last autumn. “But when the PMC Wagner leader’s positions weakened in the winter, the head of Chechnya decided to reconsider their relationship,” Abbas Gallyamov notes, “especially since he was paid very well by the Kremlin for the video he published in which he scolded his former ally. It scares me to think how much money this is going to cost the federal budget that will now need to pay for the projects of businessmen close to Kadyrov.”

“There has never been any strategic partnership between Kadyrov and Prigozhin,” political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky tells Novaya-Europe. “They could be sort of fellow travellers during a short period in historical terms. 

He understands perfectly well that Prigozhin won’t be allowed to leave Bakhmut, and that no Chechen fighters will have to be deployed there. But he managed to curry his favour with the supreme commander yet again and demonstrate his loyalty.”

Kadyrov and Prigozhin live in different dimensions, Belkovsky believes. Prigozhin has his own army, and its top priority is Africa. Apparently, this is where Yevgeny would rather wait for the Z-crisis to finish. This is why PMC Wagner is more enthusiastic about recruiting people for Africa rather than Ukraine these days.

There is no such thing as the vertical of power in Russia, Stanislav Belkovsky believes: it is but a propaganda hoax. The structure that has been built is a network, and not a hierarchical one. Authority appears anywhere in this space where big money and power capacities meet. This is why Prigozhin and Kadyrov are just as much centres of power as Shoigu and Gerasimov together. They are even something bigger as they are independent from federal red tape when it comes to decision-making.

Trying to make a run for it 

Last year, General Alexander Lapin was dismissed as commander of one of Russia’s groupings in Ukraine after statements made by Prigozhin and Kadyrov. Journalists and bloggers began to assert that Putin was listening to criticism that likely aimed at the resignation of Valery Gerasimov, the head of General Staff, and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu.

Stanislav Belkovsky says. “The two won’t be removed, at least soon. My personal opinion is that Prigozhin simply wanted to leave the battlezone in Ukraine. The reason is that the situation is nearing a point when someone will have to be responsible for the questionable results of the special military operation. Remember, he mentioned the lack of understanding of what the goals of the operation are, and he did it publicly.”

According to Stanislav Belkovsky, Prigozhin himself admitted that he and Sergey Surovikin came up with the “Bakhmut Meat Grinder” operation in order to completely exhaust and deplete the Ukrainian troops so as to disrupt their counteroffensive and allow the Russian side to prepare for defence. It looks like this plan failed. Ukrainians state that their objective is literally the opposite: to train the reserves for the counteroffensive by locking and grinding down Russian troops. It remains unclear who outplayed who, but it looks as if Prigozhin is already sensing that Russia will lose the entire campaign. The initially stated objectives have never been even close to accomplishment. And the small city of Bakhmut is not giving in for many long months.

“There will be a clear defeat anyway, except for the scenario in which the fact that the US troops did not capture Moscow is recognised as a victory,” says Belkovsky. “In such a situation, Prigozhin decided to shift the responsibility on others. So, this responsibility has been moving around: from Prigozhin to Kadyrov, and then to Shoigu and Gerasimov. The argument about who is to blame for the military defeat is starting. Prigozhin’s opponents in high offices are not complete morons and they realise that Yevgeny is trying to crawl aside. They don’t want to let him go, obviously, making a point that those who designed the “Bakhmut Meat Grinder” plan need to be responsible for its consequences. Kadyrov later confirmed this in one of his speeches.” Stanislav Belkovsky believes that this attempt to make a run for it is a harsh violation of internal ethics within Putin’s system.

The expert is certain that the relationship between the PMC Wagner leader and the defence minister is extremely contentious, and Shoigu is unlikely to forgive Prigozhin for his ultra-harsh statements about Sergey’s daughter Ksenia and son-in-law Alexey Stolyarov. By blocking Prigozhin’s Bakhmut withdrawal and depriving PMC Wagner of ammo, his opponents are virtually double-crossing him out of personal hard feelings.

“Prigozhin sort of deliberately provoked this,” Belkovsky believes. “He wanted to make up a good excuse for leaving the battlezone in Ukraine. But this idea wasn’t rocket science. Prigozhin’s opponents figured things out, and now he is not allowed to leave.”

Waiting for the offensive 

The entire Russian Federation is in a sort of passive voice these days, waiting for Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Belkovsky says. The expert believes Ukraine needs to attack the area where it will be able to achieve maximum success, as quickly as possible. “It is obvious that recapturing all the territory Russia has occupied would be very hard,” Belkovsky says. “Recapturing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear station would be quite a realistic objective, though. It looks like the evacuations and preparations for an assault is what is happening there now. Another option would be to launch an offensive on Transnistria, capture Tiraspol, and to return it under Moldova’s control. This sounds quite absurd, but it is a pretty realistic scenario both from military and pragmatic viewpoints. What we see now is that Ukraine is playing on the nerves of Russia’s command. It is clear enough, however, that the exhaustion of Ukrainian society is rising, and the start of the counteroffensive cannot be postponed for eternity. Ukraine needs significant success that would be appreciated not just domestically, but also internationally.”

Belkovsky says that if the counteroffensive does not start in the nearest future, the Western support for Ukraine might be largely reduced. Voters in democracies such as the US and other allies will start wondering what the enormous amounts of money their governments are aiding Kyiv with are being spent on. People start growing weary of the situation.

If the counteroffensive starts, PMC Wagner will most likely be on the cutting edge of this attack and apparently suffer losses that will put it out of existence. Perhaps the realisation of this is forcing Yevgeny Prigozhin to ensure withdrawal for himself and his men, by any means necessary.