Modern weapon

Some experts believe that the new missiles have either already arrived in Ukraine or will be delivered shortly. “The new missile supplies were kept under the radar until the very last moment. I am sure we will soon be able to see them used in Ukraine,” Oleksandr Musiyenko, head of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies, told Novaya-Europe. “I think that the preliminary agreements on these supplies were reached during Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the UK and talks with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. That is when the framework of the future military aid from the UK and other partners was discussed, they spoke about aircraft and long-range weapons. The Storm Shadow cruise missile exports to Ukraine were considered. The Su-24 jet bombers that Ukraine currently has can be modified to launch these rockets. I am sure that we will see these weapons used when the counteroffensive begins.”

According to Musiyenko, Storm Shadow can reach the speed of 1,000 km/h and strikes targets located 250-300 km away. Its low altitude and ability to change trajectory makes it low observable for radar and air-defence systems. The missile carries a significant explosive payload and is capable of destroying well-armoured facilities. Its destructive capabilities are much better than that of kamikaze drones.

“Storm Shadow is an Anglo-French cruise missile, originally air-launched, with a cutting-edge guidance system,” Israeli military expert David Sharp tells Novaya-Europe. “It is low-observable for air-defence systems. It can travel at a very low altitude of 30-40 metres and navigate around obstacles. Its thermal-vision self-guided warhead recognises the target at the final stage of the route. It’s difficult to down it by using jamming technologies. So, I believe Russia’s air defence has little chance of countering these weapons.”

According to David Sharp, Storm Shadow is a simplified version of a more advanced cruise missile produced by the same manufacturers. However, the price even for the less sophisticated option can stand at over $1 million per unit. According to the expert, the supplies won’t include many of these projectiles because even the UK itself does not have many of them.

Oleksandr Musiyenko notes that the range of these cruise missiles will make it possible for Ukraine to strike Russian facilities on all occupied territories, including Crimea. Attacks on military bases and hardware concentration locations will disrupt logistical efforts of the Kremlin. These operations will wreak havoc in the Russian rear.

“The missile range is stated at 290 km,” David Sharp continues. “This allows trading it without violating any international agreements. The distance covered is more than enough to carry out high-precision strikes on all occupied territories, including most of Crimea. Some modifications of this projectile can strike well-fortified areas which carries a significant danger for Russia’s command centres.”

According to David Sharp, the missile could have been modernised to potentially launch it not just from jets and ships but also from the ground. This 1,300-kg missile can also possibly be adapted to be launched from Soviet-era Su-24 bombers.

Next step? Jets

David Sharp lauds these supplies as a good precedent as Kyiv has never received weapons with the ability to travel these distances before. CNN notes that the delivery is a done deal. Now, the expert believes, Americans will have an easier time exporting ATACMS ballistic missiles of a similar range.

It is possible that the delivery is timed to coincide with the beginning of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which Valery Zaluzhny’s command was expecting.

“Ukraine having this weapon should force Russia to withdraw potentially vulnerable targets from its range,” David Sharp notes. “Storage, delivery, loading and other logistical protocols for ammo, fuel, and other military-use items will have to be changed significantly. This will have a profound effect on the frontline deliveries of everything the Russian army needs. Some facilities, like air bases, cannot be moved. Meanwhile, attacks on them are fraught with losing whole fleets of aircraft. So, obtaining this weapon is an important success factor for Ukraine.”

According to a CNN source, Kyiv pledged not to strike Russia with these missiles and only use them in its internationally recognised borders. According to David Sharp, it seems that the West’s ban on attacking Russia (as seen by the international community) is still holding up. However, the Russians need to think which military facilities will be attacked if this ban is suddenly lifted. Storm Shadow can reach a big list of targets. And it will be difficult to rely on any backstage deals in this case.

“It is also possible that we will soon see progress in F-16 supplies,” Oleksandr Musiyenko concludes. “These jets can also turn up in the country unexpectedly right before the counteroffensive. Czech President Petr Pavel did not just say for the sake of it that he would not be surprised by this outcome. Petr Pavel is a military man who served in NATO. It would be beneficial to pay attention to his statement.”