The Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken up positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region north of Oleshky and have advanced to its northern outskirts, as well as to the west of the village of Dachi, but it is not known “on what scale and with what intentions” they did so. This is reported by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a daily report.
Experts refer to a “sufficient” amount of text messages and geolocated photos provided by “Russian military bloggers”. This footage also indicates that Russian forces may not control islands in the Kinka and Chaika rivers less than half a kilometre north of the geolocated Ukrainian positions near the Antonivskyi Bridge.
Russian military bloggers claimed on 20 and 22 April that Ukrainian forces have maintained positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro for weeks, established stable supply lines to these positions, and regularly conduct sorties —all indicating a lack of Russian control over the area, analysts say.
Another milblogger’s battle map claimed that Russian forces do not control some Dnipro River delta islands southwest of Kherson City as of 22 April, suggesting possible Ukrainian advances on these islands, ISW says.
“Some milbloggers complained that
the slow rate of Russian artillery fire due to the over-centralization of the Russian military command
allowed Ukrainian forces to land on the east bank,” analysts note.
ISW presumes that Russian forces may be prioritising maintaining defences in urban areas such as Oleshky and Nova Kakhovka, leaving the islands in the Dnipro River delta unmanned. The extent and intent of these Ukrainian positions remain unclear, as does Ukraine’s ability and willingness to maintain sustained positions in this area, experts say.
“This is the first time ISW has observed reliable geolocated imagery of Ukrainian positions on the east bank along with multi-sourced Russian reports of an enduring Ukrainian presence there,” reads the report.
ISW reported on 9 April that Russian troops had lowered the intensity of offensive operations along the whole frontline. According to Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the DPR Vostok battalion, the Russian command decided to practically halt the daily ammo issue at the frontline sections where there are no offensives ongoing, the ISW wrote.
Experts said that “Russian forces were using artillery to offset their degraded offensive capabilities”. Therefore, the continuous artillery ammo “hunger” was stripping the Russians of their ability to “offset” their weaknesses on the battlefield.
