Confusion amid claims that Moscow and Kyiv agree moratorium on energy sector strikes

Moscow and Kyiv agreed to a moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes during trilateral talks held with the US in Abu Dhabi on Friday and Saturday, pro-war Telegram channel Belorussky Silovik claimed on Thursday.

Though the channel did not specify how long the moratorium would last due to fears of exposing its source, other Russian pundits confirmed the story, with pro-war blogger Vladimir Romanov saying that Russian strikes against “all objects in Kyiv and the Kyiv region”, and “all infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine” could be suspended.

Some Ukrainian Telegram channels also corroborated the claim, with open-source intelligence channel Supernova+ claiming that the moratorium was due to last until Tuesday.

Other Ukrainian Telegram channels were quick to counter the claim, however. “Pay no heed to Russian provocations about an ‘energy truce’. It is too early to say, though that may change,” Ukrainian military blogger Serhiy Sternenko warned.

“I’m sure there will be no truce. This looks more like manipulation ahead of further talks in Abu Dhabi, rather than a real agreement,” Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military and political observer with the Information Resistance Group, which counters Russian misinformation, told Novaya Gazeta Europe.

Kovalenko also said that a halt to strikes on energy facilities would be “much more beneficial to Russia than Ukraine” as Russia attacks mainly civilian targets, while Ukraine attacks military ones.

Military analyst and former Ukrainian military intelligence officer Ivan Stupak told Novaya Europe that it had mainly been Russian pro-war channels airing rumours of a truce, while Ukrainian channels were, for the most part, denying it, adding that there had been no official comment so far from either Moscow or Kyiv.

Andriy Herus, a deputy in Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, warned Ukrainians on live TV not to count on a truce, but to prepare for the next three weeks of winter, which promise to be cold. “I have no information that an energy truce is close at hand,” he said. “But we need to prepare for the worst based on the current situation.” 

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, meanwhile, said on Thursday that he couldn’t yet comment on a possible moratorium, according to Russian business news outlet RBC.