Analysts: ‘Ukrainian’ strike on town in North Caucasus was actually stray Russian missile

At least 13 people were injured in the town of Novaya Adygea, in the republic of Adygea in Russia’s North Caucasus on Tuesday, in what regional head Murat Kumpilov described as a Ukrainian drone strike on a high-rise residential building.

Kumpilov said that nine of those injured had been hospitalised, of whom two were in a stable condition in intensive care. A further 27 people had been placed in temporary accommodation, Kumpilov continued, after the building caught fire.

Having analysed footage showing the moment of impact, Russian Telegram news channel ASTRA concluded that it was actually a Russian air defence missile that hit the building rather than a Ukrainian attack drone, noting that it approached the town from the south, while Ukraine is northwest of Novaya Adygea. 

One eyewitness featured in a video from the scene also posted by ASTRA in which a local man says that a missile “flew past” him appeared to corroborate that version of events.

Ukrainian open source intelligence channel Supernova also determined that a Russian air defence missile was responsible for the attack, though Russian pro-war blogger Alex Parker accused the Armed Forces of Ukraine of striking Novaya Adygea with a Flamingo cruise missile.

Ruslan Leviev, the founder of the Russian military think tank Conflict Intelligence Team, which has been based in the Georgian capital Tbilisi since 2022, also concluded that the incident was caused by a Russian anti-aircraft missile, reasoning that, unlike anti-aircraft missiles, neither drones nor cruise missiles leave a smoke trail when they fly. 

“The white smoke trail remains as a result of the engine operation on solid mixed missile fuel, which is equipped with just anti-aircraft missiles of the S-300 / S-400 air defence systems,” Leviev wrote. “So, yes, this was an anti-aircraft missile.”