The fate of the base is not yet sealed. There can be little doubt that the Kremlin’s top diplomats will be working hard with Syria’s new rulers in Damascus to secure their only replenishment and repair station in the Mediterranean.
Yet, the departure of all Russian warships from the base last week indicates that the Russian Navy has been overtaken by events. At this stage, the likely outcome is that Moscow’s long-term access to this base will be at least compromised.
Since Peter the Great created the regular imperial Russian Navy in 1696, Moscow’s diplomacy and military forces have persistently striven for access to “warm waters”. Indeed, Russia’s access to the global sea lanes of communication passes through enclosed seas — namely the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the Sea of Japan — which do not afford Russian ships unimpeded access to the world’s oceans, or through hostile natural environments such as the Arctic Ocean and Bering Sea, where conditions tend to make navigation perilous.