Sick leave

Viasna said that as of 5 July, at least 18 political prisoners had been released, but the only one who has so far been named is Rihor Kastusiou, a 67-year-old charged with planning a coup d’état and attempting to assassinate Lukashenko.

Rihor Kastusiou was less than two years into his sentence when he had to begin cancer treatment in April and confided in a letter to his wife shortly afterwards that he felt little optimism about his future. 

Amnestying political prisoners on health grounds would mark a major shift in policy for Lukashenko, who until now had never amnestied a single political prisoner in the 30 years since he came to power. Indeed, several of those he has jailed have died while serving their sentences.

That’s not to say that Lukashenko hasn’t freed prisoners when it’s been useful for him. He has, for example, released foreign citizens after gaining certain concessions, such as Belarusian-Swiss dual citizen Natalia Hersche, who was jailed for taking part in the anti-Lukashenko protests in Minsk in 2020, and whose release was widely seen as linked to Switzerland’s decision to re-establish diplomatic ties with Belarus. At Vladimir Putin’s request, Lukashenko even agreed to free five jailed Ukrainians so that Russia could use them as part of a prisoner swap with Ukraine in June, but Belarus has never previously released prisoners by granting amnesties unprompted.

All that appeared to change earlier this month when Lukashenko proudly boasted that his government took “a humane approach” and implied that some “very seriously ill people” would soon be released, even if they were those who “broke and destroyed the country in 2020” — a reference to the vast popular demonstrations against Lukashenko’s dictatorship that followed his most recent stolen election. 

It’s certainly a challenge to detect anything “humane” about the way that Belarus has dealt with political prisoners in the past, however, where at least six opposition figures have died in custody, including Ihar Lednik, who was imprisoned for an article he wrote for the Social Democrats’ party magazine, and Mikalai Klimovich, who was serving time for an ill-placed smiley on social media.

While there is no indication of exactly who Lukashenko might amnesty, Novaya Europe has drawn up a list of five political prisoners whose health is already known to be a cause for concern.

Pavel Kuchynski, 29, was diagnosed with stage four Hodgkin’s lymphoma in 2021, before he was sentenced to four-and-a-half years in prison for “insulting the president”, “insulting a representative of the authorities” and “insulting a judge”. He is currently undergoing chemotherapy at a prison hospital. Kuchynski reportedly had to be transferred back to prison to allow him to submit a request for clemency, as for some reason in Lukashenko’s “humane” system, these cannot be initiated from hospital — though his plea was rejected.

Ksenia Lutskina, 40, used to work for Belarusian state-run TV, but went on strike and later quit her job in August 2020 in protest at the falsified results of the presidential election, which were widely seen to have been won by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. Despite having a brain tumour, Lutskina was sentenced to eight years in prison for “conspiracy to seize power” after she and her former colleagues attempted to create an alternative news channel on YouTube.

Yauhen Burlo, 33, is a member of Tor Band, who wrote the Belarusian protest anthem My ne narodets! (We are not little people!). The whole group was arrested in October 2022, charged with extremism and handed prison sentences ranging from seven-and-a-half to nine years. Burlo, who had cancer before he was arrested and still has necrosis in his hips, was sentenced to eight years, though the “humane” judge did at least allow him to remain seated when his verdict was announced.

Andrey Voinich, a 42-year-old activist with civil rights campaign group European Belarus, was sentenced to seven years in prison for taking part in “mass riots”. Voinich has cirrhosis of the liver after suffering viral hepatitis, diabetes, a tumour, and has had his gallbladder removed. He is currently awaiting a liver transplant and was confirmed to be terminally ill by his mother in 2022, who added that despite his illnesses, he had been sent to solitary confinement at least twice since his imprisonment began.

Polish journalist Andrzej Poczobut has been in a Belarusian prison for over three years, having been arrested in March 2021 and sentenced to eight years in prison after being convicted of “inciting hatred” for his coverage of the 20202 anti-government protests. While in custody, Poczobut began having problems with his blood pressure and arrhythmia. 

On Friday, 57 Nobel laureates including former Novaya Gazeta editor-in-chief Dmitry Muratov and Belarusian author Svetlana Alexievich issued an open letter to Lukashenko praising his planned amnesty, telling him he had “a unique opportunity to turn the page on the past and enter history … as a political leader who has shown wisdom and compassion.”

Nobody can say for sure how many more people whose lives are in danger are currently languishing in Belarusian prisons. The cases above are just those of political prisoners who are known by human rights activists in Belarus to be facing serious health issues and whose relatives are prepared to talk to the media. It remains to be seen who will ultimately be released, but for many political prisoners in Belarus, an amnesty may be their only chance of survival.