Julian Röpcke, a military analyst with German newspaper Bild, wrote in December that Russia was prepared to continue its war in Ukraine until 2026, and was ready to lose up to 100,000 soldiers every year.
According to Röpcke, Russian President Vladimir Putin expects a decrease in Western support for Kyiv and plans to advance Russian troops further west, hoping to capture Dnipro, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia by late 2026.
However, Kremlin sources told Russian independent media outlet Meduza in late March that Russia had “more realistic goals”, planning to capture Kharkiv and then gradually end active hostilities in Ukraine.
Kharkiv, a city in eastern Ukraine 35 kilometres from the Russian border, has been under near-constant shelling since the start of the invasion, but there has been no full-scale offensive on Kharkiv since the doomed attempt to encircle the city in the winter and spring of 2022.
Commenting recently on reports of a potential Russian offensive on Kharkiv, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Oleksandr Syrskyi recalled the 2022 Ukrainian counteroffensive that liberated the key regional towns of Izium, Kupyansk and Balakliya, which had initially been captured by Russian forces.
Syrskyi, who led the Kharkiv operation and was awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine for his success, added that the decision to launch a new offensive on Kharkiv “could be fatal” for the Russian army, and vowed that Ukraine was taking all necessary measures to be prepared for it.