Chinese foreign minister’s mysterious fall from grace 

Who is Qin Gang?

Qin Gang, 57, swiftly rose through the ranks of the Chinese Communist Party, spending his career in China’s diplomatic corps before being appointed to serve as the chief of the Foreign Ministry’s Protocol Department from 2014 to 2018, where he worked closely with President Xi. 

Analysts theorise that Qin’s close bond with Xi lead to his meteoric rise, becoming vice foreign minister in 2018, then becoming China’s ambassador to the United States in July 2021 before being promoted to foreign minister ahead of other more senior party members in December 2022, becoming one of the youngest foreign ministers in Chinese history. However, despite his rapid promotion through China’s diplomatic ranks, his seven-month stint as foreign minister was also the shortest. 

In March of this year, he stated that “when jackals and wolves are blocking the way, and hungry wolves are attacking us, Chinese diplomats must then dance with the wolves and protect and defend our home and country”.

In an interview with CBS, Qin defended China’s permissive stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Though asserting that China “is a peace-loving country” and calling “for an immediate ceasefire” in Ukraine, Qin also maintained that China and Russia “have a lot of common interests and trust relations with Russia give [China] a unique position”. He voiced his concerns that “condemnation only cannot work” and suggested that “what we need is good diplomacy based on vision, wisdom, and courage” rather than China cutting Russia off economically. He mentioned that China “upholds the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries” but also alluded to Putin’s justification for the invasion by stating that “there is a complexity in the history of the Ukraine issue”. From Qin’s words, it’s unclear how strongly China disapproves of the war in Ukraine. One thing is clear, though: Xi and Putin have had multiple phone calls and meetings since the war began, but Xi and Zelensky have had none, despite Qin’s assertion that China “has good relations with Ukraine” as well as with Russia. 

During his time as an ambassador to the United States, Qin was a staunch defender of Chinese geopolitical interests, especially in regards to Russia’s war in Ukraine, pushing for a ceasefire without expressly condemning Russian aggressions. Qin’s position on such issues closely resembles his predecessor (and now successor) Wang’s views.

On 23 February 2023, on the eve of the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China abstained from voting on the UN General Assembly’s resolution that Russia withdraw its military forces from Ukraine, which 141 member states voted in favour of. The UN resolution specifically demands that Russia “immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine” and condemns the perpetration of war crimes and attacks against civilian targets and infrastructure. 

The very next day, on 24 February, Qin’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs published China’s own peace plan for ending the Russo-Ukrainian War. “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis” proposes a number of generalised solutions for resolving the conflict centred around peace talks, economic cooperation, addressing the humanitarian crisis caused by the war, and cancelling UN-imposed unilateral sanctions against Russia without calling for a withdrawal of Russian forces or addressing war crimes perpetrated by Russian forces.

Qin’s disappearance and its handling by Chinese authorities

Qin has not been seen in public since 25 June, when he met with officials from Russia and Sri Lanka in Beijing. Though Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin cited “health reasons” for cancelling Qin’s meetings with UK and EU representatives in early July and his subsequent absence from a high-level ASEAN summit in Jakarta on 11 July, no specific health conditions were mentioned in Wang’s statement.

Amid mounting speculation, Chinese authorities maintain their silence on the official reasoning behind Qin’s disappearance and removal from his position as foreign minister.

On 25 July, the one-month anniversary of Qin’s disappearance from the public eye, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress hastily assembled after only one day’s notice to discuss Qin’s fate. This is the quickest the Committee has assembled in more than a decade, according to Changhao Wei, an associate research scholar at Yale University Law School interviewed by The Guardian. This session took place outside of the Standing Committee’s regular meeting schedule, and the only two items on the docket were a non-urgent amendment to Chinese criminal law and Qin’s replacement. 

Qin was replaced by his predecessor, Wang Yi, who has been filling in for him at key engagements such as the ASEAN summit Qin missed in Jakarta and an ongoing BRICS conference in Johannesburg in preparation for the 2023 BRICS summit in August. Wang is China’s most powerful diplomat, holding the positions of director of the Communist Party’s Foreign Affairs Commission and Politburo member, now reclaiming his former role as foreign minister as well. 

Additionally, the Chinese government has scrubbed references to Qin’s former role as foreign minister from government websites and has censored or removed posts about his disappearance on Chinese social media, though the topic was trending on Weibo, China’s social media platform, on July 25. 

Qin’s relationship with Xi

Many attribute Qin’s success to his close relationship with Xi, including a former editor of a Communist Party newspaper, Deng Yuwen, who postulates that “Qin Gang was single-handedly pulled up the ranks by Xi”.

However, many hypothesise that Qin’s endearment to Xi is dying down and Xi sought an opportunity to quietly remove him from his position in the spotlight without sustaining any personal political blows. Analyst Bill Bishop maintains that “[he] would not be surprised if the reason given is health-related, no matter what is going on, since anything discipline-related would reflect badly on Xi and his decision to break protocol to promote Qin”. Deng Yuwen is in agreement, stating that “any problems with [Qin] will reflect badly on Xi too — implying that Xi failed to choose the right person for the job”.

It is unclear why Qin was replaced as foreign minister, but there may be more than meets the eye. Chinese officials have mysteriously disappeared from the public eye before, reappearing months later under investigation. Joseph Torigian from American University’s School of International service said the move buys party leadership time to decide to give Qin a “hard or soft landing”. However, Qin retaining a position as a member of China’s State Council indicates that he has by no means fallen completely out of favour with the party. Information gaps and political opacity are a defining feature of the Chinese Communist Party.

Rumours of an affair

Unsubstantiated rumours that Qin’s disappearance is in connection with an affair with TV anchor Fu Xiaotian have been proliferated on social media. Allegations stem from Fu’s tweet posted shortly after an interview with Qin following a nine-month-long Twitter silence showing her cradling a baby boy on a private jet in the United States. Qin’s biography on a Chinese government website indicates that he has a wife and a son. It is unclear whether Fu and her son Er-Kin are those referred to in Qin’s profile.

The ripple effect of Qin’s disappearance

Qin’s absence from his duties over the past month has curtailed Chinese diplomatic activity. Neil Thomas, a fellow of the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington, D.C., informed The Washington Post that “the lengthy silence has been hugely damaging for Chinese diplomacy” as it has stalled China’s diplomatic mission during a period of heightened tensions with the United States. Thomas continues to say that “the party’s addiction to secrecy in its internal operations is now having a debilitating effect on the country’s ability to work with the outside world”.

It is unclear when or in what capacity Qin will reappear, but China required another to head their diplomatic mission during Qin’s absence. Some hypothesise that Wang’s appointment is a temporary arrangement.