The Ukraine war has been going on for 488 days. Air defence was used and explosions were heard in Ukraine’s Odesa region. The ISW believes Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine has not been substantially impacted by Wagner’s rebellion. Russia’s MoD reports Shoigu has held a staff meeting with the Zapad Group of Forces command. The US has launched an investigation into the sunken Titan submarine.
Read the biggest news that occurred overnight in Novaya-Europe’s 26 June round-up
Russia attacks the Odesa region
Ukraine’s Air Force has reported destroying 13 air targets in the overnight attack executed by the Russian military. The attack mainly targeted the south of the country.
“Three Calibre cruise missiles were launched from a submarine in the Black Sea, and eight Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 attack drones were launched from the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov. In addition, the enemy used four UAVs of an unidentified type (probably attack drones) from the northern direction," the Ukrainian Armed Forces said in a statement.
The Ukrainian military says two Calibre cruise missiles and seven Shahed-type strike UAVs had been destroyed, as well as all drones launched by the Russian Armed Forces.
Ukraine’s Air Force reported earlier that air defence had been used in the Odessa region. Prior to this, the military warned of the threat of the Russian army using Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea and UAVs from the south. Suspilne also reported several explosions in the Odessa region. An air alert was announced in several other regions of the country.
In addition, rescue work was completed in the damaged 25-storey residential building in Kyiv that was hit by fragments of a Russian missile on the night of 24 June, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine reports. Five people were killed in the incident, and 24 people were evacuated.
ISW: Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine has not been substantially impacted by Wagner’s rebellion
Russian forces’ ability to conduct offensive and defensive operations in Ukraine does not appear to have been substantially impacted by PMC Wagner’s armed rebellion, says the US-based Institute for the Study of War. Russian and Ukrainian sources both reported that fighting continued as usual along the entire frontline, including Bakhmut.
The implications of the Lukashenka-Prigozhin deal for the leadership of the Russian MoD also remain ambiguous, experts believe:
"Any changes to the MoD leadership would notably represent a significant victory for Prigozhin,
who justified his armed rebellion by directly accusing Shoigu and Gerasimov of the deaths of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine."
The fact that Wagner is returning to their training camps with military equipment indicates that the Kremlin intends to maintain at least certain elements of Wagner’s manpower rather than seek to immediately demobilise them, although the future of Wagner’s command and organisational structure are unclear, ISW says.
The Kremlin likely risks Prigozhin’s armed rebellion expanding the window of acceptable anti-Kremlin criticism, particularly if the Kremlin does not intend to retaliate further against Prigozhin, the experts note.
Russian MoD: Shoigu visits Zapad Group of Forces forward control centre
Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu has inspected the Zapad Group of Forces forward control centre in the “special military operation zone”, says Russia’s Defence Ministry. At the forward control centre, the Russian Defence Minister was briefed by the Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Yevgeniy Nikiforov on the “current situation, enemy actions, and Russian Forces operations in the main tactical directions”, the agency reports.
CNN: US expected ‘a lot more bloodshed’ from Prigozhin’s rebellion
US intelligence analysts expected that PMC Wagner’s “march toward Moscow would encounter much more resistance and be “a lot more bloody than it was,” as per CNN.
There was surprise, a US official said, that Russia’s professional military didn’t do a better job of confronting Wagner troops as they moved into Rostov and up toward Moscow, and how swift the deal which the Kremlin said was brokered by Belarus was struck on Saturday.
What Prigozhin’s ultimate aim was in his short-lived campaign remains uncertain. In the days leading up to Wagner’s march, US intelligence assessed that he was going to challenge Russian leadership, multiple sources said, but whether that was to Putin himself or the military leadership he had long railed against is unclear, CNN says.
US launches investigation into the Titan submarine implosion
The US Coast Guard says it has convened a Marine Board of Investigation into the fatal implosion of a Titanic tourist submersible that killed all five people on board, according to Chief Investigator Jason Neubauer.
“The MBI is currently in its initial evidence collection phase, including debris salvage operations at the incident site and evidence collection in coordination with Canadian authorities in the Port of Saint John’s, Newfoundland,” Neubauer said, as per Fox News.
The private tourist submarine carrying passengers to the wreck site of the Titanic went missing in the Atlantic Ocean on 19 June. Communication with the vessel was lost on 18 June in the morning. On the afternoon of 22 June, the supply of oxygen on board the submarine that disappeared in the Atlantic ended. The operating company of the Titan submersible declared all people on board dead.