Real threat or provocative act?
“The United States has been doing this for decades … I [and Alyaksandar Lukashenka] agreed that we would do the same without violating our international obligations regarding the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons,” Vladimir Putin said in late March as he explained his decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly threatened the West and Kyiv with nuclear weapons, and in February 2023 he announced that Russia would suspend its participation in the strategic arms reduction treaty. Because of Putin’s frequent mentions of nuclear weapons, his statement about Belarus was not especially surprising.
Nevertheless, the growing nuclear threats and the movement of Russian nuclear forces closer to European borders cannot but cause concern for Western countries, especially Russia’s closest neighbours. In the days following Putin’s new statement, representatives of Poland, France, and the US — as well as NATO and the EU — issued statements on the matter.