What potential peril might the New START suspension lead to — both for Russia and its “would-be aggressor”?
There’s no peril, and it’s not the first suspension initiated by Russia. The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe has been suspended by Russia since 2007. This has already become a common Russian trick: we do not withdraw from the treaty like bad Americans, but only suspend our participation. So, it isn’t a new thing.
Back in 2019 when the New START extension was being discussed, I mentioned several times that Russia was not very interested in this. Russia was ambivalent about the extension: it would be good for Russia if it was successful, and even better if it wasn’t. The reason is that Russia’s nuclear arsenal is shrinking naturally. Old weapons are being retired faster than new ones are being produced. Russia’s arsenal used to be below the limit in the past years anyway. Thus, the treaty was of no interest to Russia. The treaty implies that inspections be made, but there have been no inspections since 2020.