Russian forces are successfully advancing toward Lysychansk from the south rather than making an opposed Siverskyi Donets River crossing from Sievierodonetsk in the Luhansk region, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to ISW, Russian troops also conducted several successful advances in settlements southeast of Sievierodonetsk. An attack from the south could negate the defensive advantage that the Siverskyi Donets River grants the Ukrainian army, notes the Institute. Their assessment is that Russian troops might attack the outskirts of Lysychansk within the coming week.
ISW notes that Russian forces “will likely require further protracted battles with Ukrainian forces similar to the block-by-block fighting” that was seen in Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk in order to “capture Lysychansk”.
The Institute also reports that Russian operations along the Izium-Slovyansk axis are getting suspended because Russian troops are prioritising operations around Sievierodonetsk. The experts add that Russian forces likely managed to occupy positions on the western bank of the Inhulets River near the Kherson-Mykolaiv region border, which Ukrainian troops had occupied since 28 May.
The advance of Russian forces was also confirmed by the governor of the Luhansk region Serhiy Gaidai. According to him, Russian troops are advancing on Lysychansk, occupying localities nearby. Lysychansk is being subjected to attacks from air, meanwhile street fighting is in progress in Sievierodonetsk.
Russian forces tried to cross the Siverskyi Donets River several times, unsuccessfully. According to ISW, on 11 May, Russian troops lost from 400 to 500 soldiers on another attempt to cross the river. At the time, the Institute wrote that the Russian army “showed a stunning lack of tactical sense”. The New York Times called it one of the most lethal engagements of the invasion.