ISW: Russia overstates number of soldiers evacuated from Azovstal steelworks to benefit from POW exchange

Russia may be overstating the number of Ukrainian soldiers evacuated from the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol to arrange a beneficial prisoner swap or to avoid admitting that in fact hundreds, not thousands of Ukrainian soldiers had controlled the area for such a long time, experts from the US-based Institute for the Study of War say.

The Russian Defence Ministry reports capturing a total of 2,439 Ukrainian soldiers, while the International Committee for the Red Cross has only registered “hundreds” of Ukrainian captives.

Significant Russian offensive operations are confined to the area of Sievierodonetsk. Russian troops have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of the city, especially around Popasna, in order to attempt to take control of Sievierodonetsk. The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at least from the south, possibly by focusing on cutting off the last highway connecting Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk with the rest of Ukraine, as the ISW believes.

The purported encirclement of the Popasna area may be an effort to break through Ukrainian defences in order to provide support for the on-going battle for Sievierodonetsk, where Russian troops are making marginal gains and reportedly took control of Shchedryshcheve and Syrotne, just north of Sievierodonetsk.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported yesterday that Russian troops are attempting to erect a pontoon bridge over the Seversky Donets River. 

Denys Prokopenko, the Azov regiment commander, was “evacuated from the Azovstal area in an armoured vehicle” earlier today, claims the Russian Defence Ministry. The Russian pro-government media have also reported that Serhiy Volynsky and Sviatoslav Palamar, both high-ranked Ukrainian commanders, had been captured.